François Bregha

The earth's climate is changing. Over the next several decades, a global warming of the earth's atmosphere will alter ecosystems and force economic and social institutions to adapt to a different environment. Few places in Canada will experience more profound changes than the North, where scientists believe the warming trend will be most pronounced.

Climate is one of the factors that has made the Arctic unique until now. It has helped to isolate the circumpolar world, preserving its wildlife and allowing its indigenous peoples and their cultures to endure: Climatic change is likely to end this isolation by eliminating the Arctic's natural barriers.

 The high natural variability of the arctic climate and the incompleteness of historical data make it difficult to forecast the physical and biophysical changes likely to occur. As a bald generalization, a more benign climate should increase precipitation and the biological productivity of the Arctic's land and waters. The tree-line will slowly creep north, as will the southern limits of permafrost and sea ice. Because the northern economy relies so heavily on the exploitation of resources, these changes will have far-reaching economic and social consequences.

Climatic change will facilitate the development of non-renewable resources. The Arctic has already demonstrated its importance as a source of raw materials: for example, the Alaskan North Slope accounts for about 20 per cent of American oil production, and north-western Siberia contributes more than 50 per cent of Soviet gas production. Large reserves of oil, natural gas, lead, zinc, and iron ore have been discovered in the Canadian Arctic, some of which are already being exploited. With fewer cold-related operational problems to confront, industry will require less specialized technology in mining, oil production, pipeline-laying, and construction. Operating costs will fall, making development more economical. A more efficient use of the North's transportation infrastructure, much of which is now limited to narrow seasonal windows, will also cut costs and spur development.

However, it would be misleading to expect the northern economy to boom as soon as temperatures have risen a few degrees. Arctic resources will still have to compete with others, many of which will be found closer to market. It should also be noted that climatic change will create new engineering challenges as it removes existing ones: for example, ground instability as a result of the thawing of ice-rich permafrost.

 Renewable resource activities will also be profoundly affected by climatic warming. Although most wildlife populations should increase in numbers, their distribution and migratory patterns may alter in response to changed environmental conditions. Settlements chosen for their proximity to hunting or fishing grounds may no longer be well located for harvesting activities. In a different vein, the North's modest agricultural potential will be enhanced, a development which could lower local food costs. Increased water temperature and biomass production will permit commercial fishing operations where none now exist, creating new jobs and economic opportunities. A more temperate climate will also help attract a greater number of tourists to the North.

 On balance, the socio-economic impacts of climatic change for northerners should be positive. The cost of living should be reduced. By spurring greater economic activity, climatic change will also help make the North more economically independent. In turn, this greater economic independence will strengthen the North's hand in dealing with the federal government. But greater economic activity may also mean more immigration by southern whites and a shift in the North's racial balance; greater environmental degradation as resources are exploited on a larger scale; and a continuing acculturation of northern aboriginal peoples.

 Climatic change will have implications for Canada's claim to sovereignty over the waters of the arctic archipelago, including the Northwest Passage. To a significant extent, this claim rests on the fact that these waters are covered in ice for most of the year and, as a result, have seldom been used for commercial navigation. The possible disappearance of multi-year ice and the lengthening of the open-water season will reduce the need for expensive ice-breaking capability and should ease arctic navigation considerably (notwithstanding an expected increase in the number of icebergs in Baffin Bay and Davis Strait). The Northwest Passage is the shortest sea link between Europe and Japan. Will climatic change make possible Europeans' 500 year-old dream of a direct sea route to the Far East? What measures will Canada have to implement to regulate an increase in arctic shipping?

Both superpowers will attach greater strategic importance to the Arctic if climatic change makes it more accessible. Evolving military technology, in the form of air-released cruise missiles and sub" marine-launched ballistic missiles, is already leading to the Arctic's militarization. The emergence of the Arctic as an important source of raw materials and, possibly, an international trade route will ensure its continuing strategic importance. It may also force Canada to devote a greater share of its military resources to northern defence.

 Because it occurs imperceptibly and its effects will not be felt for many years, climatic change is not a prominent issue on today's environmental agenda. However, its far-reaching implications mean that we can ignore it only at our own peril.

 As a first step to adapting to a warmer climate, we need to improve our forecasting ability. The recently released report of the World Commission on Environment and Development, also known as the Brundtland report, calls for greater international co-operation in assessing the risk of global changes, such as climatic warming, to the environment. In response to this call, Environment Canada will sponsor a June 1988 international conference, The Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security, to examine the ability of the physical and social sciences to forecast global atmospheric changes and estimate their social and economic impacts.

 But improving our understanding of the causes and effects of climatic change is not enough. We must start planning for a warmer climate now, by designing structures such as roads, pipelines, and dams that will still be functional several decades from now.

Climatic change challenges our most basic assumptions about the Arctic. It will take time before we fully understand its implications.

François Bregha is Program Director, Northern Affairs, Department of the Environment.

 The opinions expressed in the foregoing article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the view of the department.